Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ICP prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 5.746796 6.306984 6.923000 7.655380 8.508586 9.478925 10.677209
2024-10-27 4.781361 5.508270 6.369445 7.482374 8.909379 10.717233 13.249531
2024-11-03 4.256589 5.058298 6.055482 7.419767 9.293736 11.870944 15.871983
2024-11-10 4.070045 4.973197 6.147580 7.843136 10.335256 14.066034 20.554229
2024-11-17 3.836444 4.787802 6.067869 7.996525 10.993424 15.819827 25.136528
2024-11-24 3.554301 4.503101 5.811614 7.846212 11.144281 16.771102 28.622980
2024-12-01 3.351269 4.305914 5.653357 7.812609 11.460962 18.060552 33.321597
2024-12-08 3.140482 4.078916 5.427495 7.640528 11.506784 18.849057 37.272355
2024-12-15 2.991694 3.928780 5.300539 7.608121 11.785524 20.153154 43.225238
2024-12-22 2.857470 3.789602 5.176923 7.563948 12.030247 21.444790 50.000751
2024-12-29 2.790439 3.744784 5.194011 7.757789 12.758227 24.021898 63.029531
2025-01-05 2.635649 3.557195 4.970252 7.504182 12.549511 24.306856 68.064771
2025-01-12 2.475249 3.361763 4.735822 7.237547 12.336826 24.696765 74.899463
2025-01-19 2.346751 3.210290 4.565450 7.076784 12.339226 25.716933 86.502309
2025-01-26 2.249785 3.101896 4.457417 7.019084 12.556849 27.434044 105.188241
2025-02-02 2.239287 3.128804 4.577066 7.408615 13.878747 33.143785 168.444185
2025-02-09 2.187402 3.085217 4.571379 7.549536 14.641878 37.537593 249.015744
2025-02-16 2.096679 2.972839 4.436683 7.411442 14.667083 39.254332 313.321040
2025-02-23 2.028842 2.894696 4.357453 7.380556 14.973051 42.327644 442.018427
2025-03-02 1.947793 2.790531 4.224718 7.222306 14.901209 43.774118 567.789488
2025-03-09 1.890152 2.723000 4.154461 7.192488 15.190313 47.142771 880.160372
2025-03-16 1.834897 2.656880 4.082615 7.151836 15.442596 50.586807 1476.352933
2025-03-23 1.811099 2.643204 4.107175 7.330157 16.404105 58.896682 5355.635505